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	<title>Financial Blog</title>
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	<description>Our Interests, All About The Finance,Let's overcome the financial crisis!</description>
	<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Is the U.S. Finished?</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Featuring Lutts&#8217; Logic:Is the U.S. Finished?The Value of EducationA Great Education Stock&#8212;Soon after the government&#8217;s initial $700 billion bailout, one of my elder relatives sent along this:&#8221;More than 200 years ago, while the original 13 colonies were still part of Great Britain, Professor Alexander Tytler wrote of the Athenian republic, which had fallen 2,000 years [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Featuring Lutts&#8217; Logic:Is the U.S. Finished?The Value of EducationA Great Education Stock&#8212;Soon after the government&#8217;s initial $700 billion bailout, one of my elder relatives sent along this:&#8221;More than 200 years ago, while the original 13 colonies were still part of Great Britain, Professor Alexander Tytler wrote of the Athenian republic, which had fallen 2,000 years earlier:&#8221;A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world&#8217;s greatest civilizations has been 200 years.  Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.&#8221;Is it true?  Yes and no.  If you want to believe it, yes, there is evidence that several nations have been through the cycle.  But some have escaped it, and clearly, the 200-year figure is a big round number, and not etched in stone for any nation.Also, there is no proof that Tytler, a Scottish historian who lived from 1747 to 1813, wrote it &#8230; or anything similar to it!The closest Tytler came to it is this: &#8220;It is not, perhaps, unreasonable to conclude, that a pure and perfect democracy is a thing not attainable by man, constituted as he is of contending elements of vice and virtue, and ever mainly influenced by the predominant principle of self-interest. It may, indeed, be confidently asserted, that there never was that government called a republic, which was not ultimately ruled by a single will, and, therefore, (however bold may seem the paradox,) virtually and substantially a monarchy.&#8221;Nevertheless, if you want to believe America&#8217;s best days as a democracy have passed, there&#8217;s plenty of evidence today.  Economically, we&#8217;re behind the 8-ball.  Our country&#8217;s debt is now 340% of GDP.  Seven percent of mortgages were delinquent at the end of the third quarter; the number is even larger today.Morally, much of the country is bankrupt, not least many of the politicians who profess to lead us.Politically, we&#8217;re at the mercy of two parties who care more about wielding power than serving the country.Educationally, we have a long tradition of failures in public education.  Seventeen of our 50 largest cities have high school graduation rates below 50%.Our health care system, where the decision-making and the control of the dollars are both in the hands of insurance companies, is broken.And our continued reliance on foreign oil is a disaster waiting to happen; the past summer&#8217;s oil shock is likely just a taste of what will come as global demand grows and supply dries up.On the other hand &#8230; not long ago I received the following from a reader:&#8221;Within 10 years, the internal combustion engine as a primary propulsion engine for human transportation, will become obsolete.&#8221;My argument supporting this prediction is based on the simple laws of physics. Energy cannot be created nor destroyed, it simply changes form.&#8221;Presently, the kinetic energy of a moving vehicle is wasted when the brakes are applied, as heat generated from the friction of the brake pads acting upon the rotors or brake drums. This heat energy dissipates and contributes to global warming (see, I got you to smile).&#8221;The primary propulsion engine of the future will be an electric motor or motors powered by the car&#8217;s battery.&#8221;Regenerative braking, a built-in function of the motors, will capture that kinetic energy of the moving vehicle as the brakes are applied and store it as electrical energy in the car&#8217;s battery to be re-used. &#8220;An on-board, constant rpm Capstone Turbine micro-turbine engine (diesel, gasoline, LP-gas, unrefined wellhead gas or a hydrogen fuel cell) will act as a range extender power plant generating electrical energy to power the car when the car battery voltage has depleted to a threshold sufficient to trigger charging.&#8221;The reuse of energy captured during regenerative braking is why the electrical propulsion vehicle is more efficient, getting many more miles traveled from a gallon of diesel fuel or gasoline.&#8221;A solar panel integrated into the roof of the vehicle will charge the battery when the car is in the sunlight and power cabin ventilation of the parked vehicle. The sunlight that now heats the interior of a parked car on a hot day will be captured as electrical energy and stored in the car&#8217;s battery for future use or used to ventilate the cabin to keep it at ambient temperature. &#8220;Future labor agreements will adopt provisions to allow employees to plug-in their cars while at work so the battery will be recharged at the end of the workday. We will most likely see the building of many &#8220;solar carports&#8221; where folks can park in the shade and plug in their car battery charger while they go about their business. &#8220;CleanPowerSystems is presently constructing just such a parking facility here in Apple Valley, CA at the St. Mary&#8217;s Regional Medical Center.&#8221;My high-school chemistry teacher (1963), Mr. Bolliger, said it&#8217;s really a shame to use petroleum as a motor fuel because it is the basis of all plastics and synthetic materials.&#8221;Perhaps that day is near when oil is no longer used as a primary motor fuel?&#8221;Without any doubt we are entering a brave, new world. We must be brave, optimistic and ingenious to overcome the challenges that lie ahead.&#8221;D.F. of Apple Valley, CaliforniaWhich outlook is right?  You choose.  You can believe the United States&#8217; best days are over and we are slowly slipping back toward dependence and bondage.  Or you can believe that &#8220;good old American ingenuity&#8221; will allow us once again to &#8220;overcome the challenges that lie ahead&#8221; and retain our position of global leadership.  Or you can choose something in between.  If your life has been full of disappointment, you may be inclined to adopt the former, pessimistic position.  And if you&#8217;re a self-made man or woman who has achieved success through hard work, you may be inclined to think it can be done again.  Or, again, you can choose something in the middle.You will, of course, believe that your perception is correct, and that people who don&#8217;t see it your way just haven&#8217;t seen the light yet.  But the fact is that the reality they perceive is colored by their life&#8217;s experience, just as your reality is colored by your own experience.Me, I&#8217;m an optimist, not least because life is a lot more fun when you look on the bright side.  It makes you healthier, more productive, and more fun to be with.Your comments are welcome.&#8212; Advertisement &#8212;Don&#8217;t Miss This Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying OpportunityWe can help you get your portfolio on the right track and recoup the losses you&#8217;ve suffered during the market&#8217;s plunge. Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter uses a time-tested system to bring investors the best undervalued stocks in the market&#8211;and they&#8217;re selling at bargain prices right now. The system, laid out by the father of value investing and followed by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, has brought investors returns of 20% annually since its inception 80 years ago.If you want to safeguard your money and patiently wait for solid stocks to climb higher in price, this letter is for you. Editor J. Royden Ward says now is the time to buy, especially because many great stocks are so inexpensive. He even called this an once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity.Don&#8217;t wait any longer to get your investments on the right path. You&#8217;ve got nothing to lose and everything to gain. Click the link below to get started today.http://www.cabot.net/info/bgv/bgvir03.aspx?source=wc01&#8212;Moving along, just a little, I&#8217;ve long found it ironic that every human has to relearn the lessons learned by our predecessors.  Sure, theoretically, we can stand &#8220;on the shoulders of giants,&#8221; as Sir Isaac Newton wrote.  And it is true that by consulting the great books and by studying history, we can increase our sphere of knowledge exponentially.  We can become &#8220;wise beyond our years.&#8221; But first, we all start&#8211;as babies&#8211;at zero.  We get educated in the basics.  Ideally, we then get more education, to the extent that we can expand on the achievements of our predecessors, and create great things, like the personal computer, the hybrid car or new improved solar cells (all created by engineers).But millions of Americans don&#8217;t.  For various reasons, their education ends too soon.  As a result, more than 200 years after our wise founding fathers created the documents that made the U.S. the most attractive place in the world to live, work and raise a family, 21% to 23% of adult Americans are functionally illiterate.  While they can read the few hundred words they learned in elementary school, they cannot &#8220;locate information in text&#8221; or &#8220;make low-level inferences using printed materials.&#8221;  And once out of school, they don&#8217;t read books &#8230; ever.These people don&#8217;t stand on the shoulders of giants.  Instead, their reality is colored by their day-to-day exposure to their small circle of friends, relatives and co-workers, and&#8211;to a very large extent&#8211;by what they choose to watch on TV.Last week, these were the most-watched shows on TV.Dancing With the StarsDancing With the Stars Results60 MinutesNCISThe MentalistSunday Night Football: Chicago at MinnesotaDesperate HousewivesTwo and a Half MenCSI: MiamiCriminal MindsEntertaining, apparently, but hardly elevating.  It&#8217;s no coincidence that children who don&#8217;t watch TV do better in school.  But I&#8217;m not so foolish as to believe we can&#8211;or should&#8211;ban TVs.  I watch TV, too, though I didn&#8217;t watch any of those top 10 shows last week.  My favorites are &#8220;Jeopardy&#8221; and &#8220;Cash Cab,&#8221; which I call &#8220;Jeopardy for regular people.&#8221;  And I skip commercials.The real question is this: how do we educate our children so that they become literate, contributing members of society?  How do we educate them so that they can help us move forward as a society, instead of cycle back to a life of apathy, dependency and bondage?Your suggestions are welcome.&#8212;Speaking of education, it&#8217;s not just for kids.  You&#8217;re never too old to learn.  Here in the Cabot office, we have a generous policy of paying for continuing education for employees.  And all over the country, men and women, both employed and between jobs, are finding that a little more education is just what&#8217;s needed to move to the next level.Many of these older students are finding what they need at for-profit schools, which tend to focus on teaching the skills needed to advance in particular careers, from nursing to computer science to business management to criminal justice.  In fact, these schools are one of the clear beneficiaries of the current recession.  Enrollments are up, and revenues and earnings are climbing.Most important of all, their stocks are strong!  A few weeks ago, we mentioned Strayer Education (STRA), which has just pulled back to its 50-day moving average.  And today, I want to recommend another stock, the king of the industry, Apollo Group (APOL).Apollo was a great growth stock from its 1994 IPO all the way to its peak in early 2004.  Then growth slowed, shareholders jumped ship, and the stock fell all the way from 98 to 33.  But the company kept growing!  In fact Apollo has a perfect 10-year record of growth of both revenue and earnings.Here&#8217;s what editor Michael Cintolo wrote in a recent issue of Cabot Top Ten Report.&#8221;Apollo is committed to serving the needs of working adults through its subsidiaries University of Phoenix, Institute for Professional Development, College for Financial Planning and Western International University. With more than 360,000 students, Apollo is the giant in for-profit higher education, offering associate, undergraduate and graduate degrees both online and in 385 facilities in North and South America. The company got into a little hot water with the SEC in 2004, and the loss of focus resulted in an earnings slowdown in late 2006. But earnings are back on track, the SEC is happy and the company has a new CEO to guide it through a period when demands on its services are sure to be at a record high.&#8221;I look at Apollo today and I see a company whose revenues grew 16% to $831 million in the third quarter, while earnings jumped 15% to $0.77 per share.  Equally important, analysts increased their estimates of future earnings.  Profit margins are a robust 14.8%.  And Apollo has no long-term debt.The stock climbed from 38 in March to a recent high of 77, and it&#8217;s recently been consolidating its gains in the low-70s, while its 25-day moving average catches up.  In a bull market, it might be a decent buy around 70, but in today&#8217;s crazy news-driven market, waiting and watching is a more prudent approach.Yours in pursuit of wisdom and wealth,Timothy LuttsPublisherCabot Wealth AdvisoryEditor&#8217;s Note: Apollo Group&#8217;s rating will be regularly updated in Cabot Top Ten Report for as long as the stock&#8217;s chart action remains healthy.  And if you&#8217;d like more strong stocks like APOL, I urge you to give Cabot Top Ten Report a try.  It&#8217;s the best way to discover new leaders early&#8211;stocks like Hansen Natural, Crocs and First Solar.  To get started with your no-risk trial subscription, simply click the link below.https://www.cabot.net/info/ctt/cttib02.aspx?source=wc01&#8212;</p>
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		<title>Oil markets brush off OPEC\&#8217;s big cut</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:50:49 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Oil markets brush off OPEC&#8217;s big cutInvestors are unimpressed despite cartel&#8217;s massive production cuts, sending oil below $40 (U.S.) for first time in five yearsSHAWN MCCARTHYGLOBAL ENERGY REPORTERDecember 18, 2008OTTAWA &#8212; Oil markets gave a sharply negative review yesterday to OPEC&#8217;s decision to slash production by a further 2.2 million barrels a day, as crude [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil markets brush off OPEC&#8217;s big cutInvestors are unimpressed despite cartel&#8217;s massive production cuts, sending oil below $40 (U.S.) for first time in five yearsSHAWN MCCARTHYGLOBAL ENERGY REPORTERDecember 18, 2008OTTAWA &#8212; Oil markets gave a sharply negative review yesterday to OPEC&#8217;s decision to slash production by a further 2.2 million barrels a day, as crude prices fell below $40 (U.S.) a barrel for the first time in more than five years.At a meeting in Algeria, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut supplies by a total of 4.2 million barrels a day below September levels. The cartel had already agreed to rein in production by two million barrels at two separate meetings this fall.However, traders responded to the largest OPEC cut yet by driving down the price of crude, and analysts said the action was too little, too late to prevent a further erosion in oil prices early next year.&#8221;Markets are saying, it&#8217;s not enough, it&#8217;s insufficient&#8221; said Dina Cover, commodity economist with the Toronto-Dominion Bank.Pointing to the prospect of an actual drop in oil demand next year, Ms. Cover recently forecast oil prices to slump to as low as $25 (U.S.) a barrel, and to average $30 (U.S.) in the second quarter of next year.And OPEC&#8217;s new production targets don&#8217;t change that view, she said yesterday.&#8221;We expect demand to fall a lot further and OPEC will probably have to cut again.&#8221;In New York yesterday, the price of light, sweet crude fell 8 per cent or $3.54 (U.S.) a barrel to $40.06, after trading as low as $39.88.In their communiqué, OPEC ministers said that, &#8220;if unchecked, prices could fall to levels which would place at jeopardy the investments required to guarantee adequate energy supplies in the medium-to-long term.&#8221;Traders remain skeptical that OPEC will actually meet its targeted, 4.2-million-barrel reduction, said David Kirsch, energy analyst with PFC Energy.The cartel has not fully implemented the two-million-barrel cut announced in two stages this fall, and gave little indication of how individual members are expected to comply with the latest round.&#8221;OPEC has got its work cut out for it, and there is very much a question of OPEC&#8217;s ability to carry through on its agreement,&#8221; Mr. Kirsch said.The cartel called on non-OPEC producers to help maintain the stability of global oil markets by reining in production. Several countries, including Russia, Azerbaijan and Syria sent observers to the meeting, but made no commitment to impose cuts.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin instead told the meeting that Russian producers had already cut production this fall and would do so again if market conditions warranted.It would have been helpful in the communiqué if Russia had come out and indicated it would cut production,&#8221; Mr. Kirsch said.&#8221;But [Mr.] Sechin&#8217;s statement merely reflected what the markets already knew,&#8221; he said. &#8220;If oil prices remain at low levels - and more importantly, if the financial straits that a lot of Russian oil companies find themselves don&#8217;t ease soon - Russian output is going to fall a further 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day.&#8221;Saudi Arabia has once again emerged as the key producer that must adjust its volumes to market conditions. Last spring, when prices were climbing to record levels, the Saudis faced considerable pressure from oil-consuming nations to boost production.And now, it will be up to the world&#8217;s largest exporter to absorb much of the production cuts. The alternative is to allow prices to slump even further than currently projected, forcing higher-cost producers, including those in Canada&#8217;s oil sands, to reduce output and scale back investment.OPEC OUTPUT CUTOPEC oil ministers agreed yesterday to remove a record 2.2-million barrels per day from oil markets in a race to balance supply with the world&#8217;s rapidly crumbling demand for fuel.OPEC OUTPUTMillion barrels per day (mb/d)Jan. &#8216;07 26.92Jan. &#8216;08 29.89Aug. &#8216;08 30.4Nov.*&#8217;08 28.07Note: OPEC 12 includes Angola and Ecuador.* Indonesia leaves OPEC at the end of 2008 and is excluded from quota from Nov. 2008.BRENT CRUDE PRICEWeekly close, $U.S.Jan. 7/07 $55.64Jan. 6/07 $96.79Jul. 13/08 $144.49Dec. 17/08 $47.90REUTERS/THE GLOBE AND MAIL66 SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS</p>
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		<title>Wall Street Holidays</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:50:41 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[This is an enjoyable time of the year. Its when families gather together to share a wonderful holiday meal and exchange presents. After all, who does not love to tear the wrapping off their presents to see whats inside? It is really fun to see the excitement of small children as they open their presents. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an enjoyable time of the year. Its when families gather together to share a wonderful holiday meal and exchange presents. After all, who does not love to tear the wrapping off their presents to see whats inside? It is really fun to see the excitement of small children as they open their presents. <br />
This type of excitement was on display this past week as little Ben Bernanke unwrapped his present. It brought a tear to my eye as I saw the sheer joy on little Bens face as he gazed at his present â a shiny, brand-new helicopter! Little Ben screamed âMommy, mommy, look at my new helicopter! Now I can dump all the money I want out of my new helicopter and make everyone happyâ! <br />
Yes, this was the week that the Federal Reserve entered uncharted territory and in effect lowered interest rates to zero. This event had been predicted in my prior Absolute Zero article and by others here at Oxbury Publishing. <br />
Im sure this action by the Federal Reserve was wildly cheered in the executive suites of firms such as Citibank (C) and Bank of America (BAC). Speaking of those two shining examples of American âextremeâ capitalism, there was an interesting tidbit about them in the Financial Times. <br />
The Financial Times cited one recent estimate which looked at those two firms total leverage ratios. The total leverage ratio looked at both firms on-book and off-book assets and exposure and divided that figure by tangible equity. The leverage ratios were an outlandish 88:1 for Citibank and 134:1 for Bank of America. Is it any wonder that our financial system is in such dire straits?  <br />
<strong>Wall Street Children</strong> <br />
The children, otherwise known as money managers, on Wall Street were also unwrapping their presents this past week. It was amazing to see the childrens reaction to the hot new Wall Street board game, Lose Your Clients Money.  <br />
What glee! What excitement! âLook mommy, I invested billions of dollars of clients money into Treasury bills at a negative rate of interest! I wanted the money to be âsafeâ because that bedtime story I read, Grisly Tales of Deflation, really scared meâ! <br />
Yes, the numbskulls on Wall Street continue to miss the very obvious fact that the so-called liquidity trap is quickly turning into a liquidity flood. Did they not see Ben Bernanke gassing up his shiny new helicopter? Did they not notice that Bens new helicopter was armed with Hellfire missiles which he fired on the dam, unleashing a flood of liquidity? <br />
Its a basic economic fact that in a fiat money system central banks can easily create an infinite quantity of money at no cost. So central bankers can reduce the value of the money they are creating in effect to zero, if they wish. In other words, in a fiat money system such as we have curing the much-feared deflation disease is childs play. Yet, the Wall Street children cannot seem to grasp this. Why is this? <br />
<strong>Mommy, Im Scared!</strong> <br />
As Ive stated in prior articles, I firmly believe that our financial system is plagued by a lack of independent thinking and this lack of independent Wall Street thinkers has played a major role in the current financial crisis. <br />
I believe this is especially pertinent in todays society. People are exposed to Wall Street group think through media outlets such as CNBC and they also become âinfectedâ. Therefore many individual investors also do not think for themselves and their thoughts simply line up with Wall Streets thoughts. Thats why so many people have bought fully into the deflation myth.  <br />
The Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme is just the latest example of how willing Wall Street money managers are to invest in something that their peers appear happy with, without doing the necessary due diligence themselves. This âherdâ behavior again highlights the lack of independent thought on Wall Street.  <br />
This âherdâ behavior also explains why Wall Street money managers are currently piling into Treasuries, even at negative interest rates. If âallâ of the money managers are in the same investments, they are safe. That is, their cushy jobs are safe.  <br />
The money managers can simply say âBut mommy, everyone else was doing it too, so you cant blame me for the huge lossesâ. If Wall Street money managers dare have an independent thought and they are wrong, they soon lose their cushy jobs. Most Wall Street people will simply not risk it. <br />
So the Wall Street money managers jobs are safe but the same cannot be said for their clients money. I want to emphasize again to investors that the number one priority for Wall Street money managers is job preservation. Preservation of clients capital is well down on the list. Therefore it is of utmost importance that investors get input from independent sources such as Oxbury Publishing.   <br />
My own experience is a real life example. In my final year of twenty years at a brokerage firm, I got into lots of trouble with the new managers they had hired. Why? I was told that I was âwastingâ far too much time meeting with clients and helping the clients set up investment plans to meet the clients financial goals!  <br />
They wanted me to spend more time bringing assets in the door. I asked â âWhat about when the assets are in the door, what then?â Managements reply - âOnce the assets are here, who cares? Most people are too lazy to transfer their accountâ! Needless to say, I moved on shortly thereafter. <br />
<strong>Twas the Night Before&#8230;..</strong> <br />
I wanted to leave everyone with some holiday cheer - a poem. My apologies to the original author which most people believe was Clement Clarke Moore. <br />
Twas the night before Christmas, when all through Wall Street <br />
Not a creature was stirring, not even a rat called Dick Fuld; <br />
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, <br />
In hopes that Santa Ben with sacks full of money would soon be there; <br />
The bankers were nestled all snug in their beds, <br />
While visions of perks and bonuses danced in their heads; <br />
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter, <br />
The bankers sprang from their beds to see what was the matter. <br />
When, what to their wandering eyes should appear, <br />
But a miniature limo with eight cylinders under the hood, <br />
With a bald-headed, bearded driver, so lively and quick, <br />
The bankers knew in a moment it must be Santa Ben. <br />
Down the chimney came Santa Ben with a bound. <br />
A bundle of money he had flung on his back, <br />
And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack. <br />
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work, <br />
And filled all the stockings with billions of dollars; <br />
And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose; <br />
He sprang to his limo, and away he flew. <br />
As he drove out of sight, he was heard to exclaim, <br />
âHappy Holidays to all, and to all a good nightâ! <br />
Happy Holidays Everyone, <br />
Tony DâAltorio <br />
Analyst, Oxbury Research  <br />
Disclosure: no positions</p>
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		<title>President Elect Obama Makes Puzzling Choice for SBA Chief</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:50:32 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Just when I was starting to get really impressed with President Elect Barack Obamas cabinet picks  overall a pretty strong line-up  comes a puzzling choice for the new Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration. 
Hes chosen a venture capitalist as the head of the organization that is supposed to serve the nations [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just when I was starting to get really impressed with President Elect Barack Obamas cabinet picks  overall a pretty strong line-up  comes a puzzling choice for the new Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration. <br />
Hes chosen a venture capitalist as the head of the organization that is supposed to serve the nations small businesses.  <br />
News announcements have touted her venture capital background as if its somehow a benefit.  But is it? <br />
Does Karen Mills background as a VC qualify her to head up an agency to serve small businesses?   <br />
Id say Its not a relevant qualification  if anything, its a negative.  Why?  Because the vast majority of the nations businesses would never qualify for venture capital.  So if you are going to look at it through the lens of doling out venture money, most of those businesses wouldnt rate a second look from a VC  or even a first look.   <br />
Is someone who views the world of businesses as being those that would qualify for venture capital, predisposed to serve the 27 million small businesses that would never qualify for VC money? <br />
Lets look at three points:    <br />
The SBA has come under criticism for not serving enough small businesses, serving businesses that are too large, and not making enough loans.  Well, if youre going to make more loans and serve more small businesses, you need to be looking at expanding micro-lending programs.  Because that is what would touch many more small businesses (including the roughly 20 million of whom are single-person businesses). And the reality is, most small businesses dont need a whole lot of money to grow.  So micro-lending makes the most sense if you want to reach the most small businesses.   <br />
Few businesses get venture capital money.  The predisposition of VCs is to just say no.  They have to be very choosy, because they are taking big risks with big money.  They look for high-growth businesses.  Fact is, most small businesses in the United States are not high growth businesses.  The mission of the SBA is to aid, counsel, assist and protect the interests of small business concerns.  Not high growth businesses but small businesses.  Two completely different things. <br />
Venture capitalists make a small number of investments and take big risks.  But should that be the role of the U.S. taxpayer (which funds the SBA)?  VCs make big money because they take big risks  and they also lose money on many of their investments. Underwriting SBA loans and serving a wide swatch of small businesses requires a different mindset, than the VCs big risk, big payday mindset.   <br />
As Dawn Rivers Baker says, while it looks like the majority of small businesses will just continue to be ignored, lets give her a chance and see what she does.   <br />
Meanwhile, what do you think?  Negative or positive to bring in a venture capitalist to head up the Small Business Administration?  Sound off in the comments below, and be sure to give your reasons. <br />
Share This </p>
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		<title>The day after</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:50:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Day AfterI was back to work by mid-morning today as i was assigned to gather some feedback from the business community of the impact of the electoral outcomes. from the feedback, there is expectation that sentiment would weaken further as uncertainty looms over the setting up of a new federal administration as well as [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Day AfterI was back to work by mid-morning today as i was assigned to gather some feedback from the business community of the impact of the electoral outcomes. from the feedback, there is expectation that sentiment would weaken further as uncertainty looms over the setting up of a new federal administration as well as state governments. nonetheless, those i&#8217;ve spoken to express hope that no violent incident would take place during this period of transition of power. I choose to be optimistic. i believe that Malaysians have grown more civilised than 39 years ago. while we could not be totally rid of delinquents and extremists, the bulk of us are still keen on keep the peace and harmony that we&#8217;ve enjoyed so far. also, the difference between now and 1969 is that we&#8217;ve become a more mature society with longer history and identity. most of us are second or third generations of Malays, Chinese, Indians and aborigines, who have not experienced World War 2 or any significant conflicts. We grew up together among each other with the various cultures, beliefs and customs. we&#8217;re used to practices of our Muslim friends when they fast, or when firecrackers broke during Chinese New Year (altho&#8217; this is forbidden legally), or when our Indian friends put on a mark on their forehead after they performed prayers. today we have a better understanding of each other than in 1969, when our grandfathers had less than 15 years of living together among the different races. economically, we have a firmer standing than our neigbouring countries thanks to natural resources, policies and incentives for investments. we&#8217;re more confident being Malaysian today than 39 years ago. as such, we have much to lose if we were to give up our multi-facet society. While this election saw millions of Malaysians opting for an alternative, it is also a bold step of faith putting confidence in some individuals that have no prior political experience up until now. as could be seen from the voting trend, voters were not basing their votes on individuals. rather, their decision was on party basis hence whoever the oppositions had fielded, whether fresh or familiar faces, they won by huge majority. this is not to say that these candidates were not qualified. like the saying goes, &#8220;they were at the right place, at the right time.&#8221;The journey of a million mile begins with a single step. now that we have taken that first step, it is now up to the opposition leaders to meet the expectations, which will not be an easy task. the three opposition parties have very different manifestos and the gap could be quite wide too. also, they have not had the experience of working together especially in forming a coalition government. hence they face an uphill task of proving to the people that they have the ability to govern and could provide the change that they&#8217;ve promised in their campaign. Nonetheless, it is a good start that they have the four new states as these would provide them with sufficient exposure and opportunity to iron the differences and work together. they would definitely make some mistakes, some could be stupid ones too but hopefully, they would not disappoint the rakyat too much. for now, it is still yet to be seen how things would work out but the people&#8217;s confidence shown in this elections would be a motivator for leaders to come together and forgo their differences. if used correctly, such confidence would define the future direction of this country. As for the ruling party, this outcome served as a reminder that in a democratic society, the people&#8217;s interest rises above personals and that people are not as ignorant as perceived. in an age when information technology is widely used and information is more vastly available, everyone has the ability to discern and decide for his/her self. society is no longer as easily socialised as before, even when mainstream media is mainly owned by political parties and has a high sensorship level. it is also not true that masyarakat mudah lupa (society easily forgets) because there are some things that won&#8217;t slipped our mind, like when a certain politician has a huge bungalow built for millions of ringgit without proper approvals, or when leaders kept raising keris in a political assembly without considering other groups in the country, or when peaceful demonstrations were forbidded for a worthy cause, or when individuals accused of corruptions were not properly dealt with. the phrase &#8220;he sounds like me, looks like me but he is not me&#8230;&#8221; has become one of the best lines for jokes in town. When leaders decide to listen intensely, they would actually hear what those on the ground are saying and if they paid enough attention, they would know the root of the issues and instead of hiding behind the fences and giving excuses, they would gain more respect if they come face-to-face with the demon himself. The political landscape has changed. whether the wind would continue blowing would depend on how both sides perform in the next five years. let&#8217;s not disappoint the very ones that have put the parties into that position.</p>
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		<title>Oil markets brush off OPEC\&#8217;s big cut</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:50:12 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Oil markets brush off OPEC&#8217;s big cutInvestors are unimpressed despite cartel&#8217;s massive production cuts, sending oil below $40 (U.S.) for first time in five yearsSHAWN MCCARTHYGLOBAL ENERGY REPORTERDecember 18, 2008OTTAWA &#8212; Oil markets gave a sharply negative review yesterday to OPEC&#8217;s decision to slash production by a further 2.2 million barrels a day, as crude [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil markets brush off OPEC&#8217;s big cutInvestors are unimpressed despite cartel&#8217;s massive production cuts, sending oil below $40 (U.S.) for first time in five yearsSHAWN MCCARTHYGLOBAL ENERGY REPORTERDecember 18, 2008OTTAWA &#8212; Oil markets gave a sharply negative review yesterday to OPEC&#8217;s decision to slash production by a further 2.2 million barrels a day, as crude prices fell below $40 (U.S.) a barrel for the first time in more than five years.At a meeting in Algeria, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut supplies by a total of 4.2 million barrels a day below September levels. The cartel had already agreed to rein in production by two million barrels at two separate meetings this fall.However, traders responded to the largest OPEC cut yet by driving down the price of crude, and analysts said the action was too little, too late to prevent a further erosion in oil prices early next year.&#8221;Markets are saying, it&#8217;s not enough, it&#8217;s insufficient&#8221; said Dina Cover, commodity economist with the Toronto-Dominion Bank.Pointing to the prospect of an actual drop in oil demand next year, Ms. Cover recently forecast oil prices to slump to as low as $25 (U.S.) a barrel, and to average $30 (U.S.) in the second quarter of next year.And OPEC&#8217;s new production targets don&#8217;t change that view, she said yesterday.&#8221;We expect demand to fall a lot further and OPEC will probably have to cut again.&#8221;In New York yesterday, the price of light, sweet crude fell 8 per cent or $3.54 (U.S.) a barrel to $40.06, after trading as low as $39.88.In their communiqué, OPEC ministers said that, &#8220;if unchecked, prices could fall to levels which would place at jeopardy the investments required to guarantee adequate energy supplies in the medium-to-long term.&#8221;Traders remain skeptical that OPEC will actually meet its targeted, 4.2-million-barrel reduction, said David Kirsch, energy analyst with PFC Energy.The cartel has not fully implemented the two-million-barrel cut announced in two stages this fall, and gave little indication of how individual members are expected to comply with the latest round.&#8221;OPEC has got its work cut out for it, and there is very much a question of OPEC&#8217;s ability to carry through on its agreement,&#8221; Mr. Kirsch said.The cartel called on non-OPEC producers to help maintain the stability of global oil markets by reining in production. Several countries, including Russia, Azerbaijan and Syria sent observers to the meeting, but made no commitment to impose cuts.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin instead told the meeting that Russian producers had already cut production this fall and would do so again if market conditions warranted.It would have been helpful in the communiqué if Russia had come out and indicated it would cut production,&#8221; Mr. Kirsch said.&#8221;But [Mr.] Sechin&#8217;s statement merely reflected what the markets already knew,&#8221; he said. &#8220;If oil prices remain at low levels - and more importantly, if the financial straits that a lot of Russian oil companies find themselves don&#8217;t ease soon - Russian output is going to fall a further 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day.&#8221;Saudi Arabia has once again emerged as the key producer that must adjust its volumes to market conditions. Last spring, when prices were climbing to record levels, the Saudis faced considerable pressure from oil-consuming nations to boost production.And now, it will be up to the world&#8217;s largest exporter to absorb much of the production cuts. The alternative is to allow prices to slump even further than currently projected, forcing higher-cost producers, including those in Canada&#8217;s oil sands, to reduce output and scale back investment.OPEC OUTPUT CUTOPEC oil ministers agreed yesterday to remove a record 2.2-million barrels per day from oil markets in a race to balance supply with the world&#8217;s rapidly crumbling demand for fuel.OPEC OUTPUTMillion barrels per day (mb/d)Jan. &#8216;07 26.92Jan. &#8216;08 29.89Aug. &#8216;08 30.4Nov.*&#8217;08 28.07Note: OPEC 12 includes Angola and Ecuador.* Indonesia leaves OPEC at the end of 2008 and is excluded from quota from Nov. 2008.BRENT CRUDE PRICEWeekly close, $U.S.Jan. 7/07 $55.64Jan. 6/07 $96.79Jul. 13/08 $144.49Dec. 17/08 $47.90REUTERS/THE GLOBE AND MAIL66 SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS</p>
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		<title>Wall Street Holidays</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[This is an enjoyable time of the year. Its when families gather together to share a wonderful holiday meal and exchange presents. After all, who does not love to tear the wrapping off their presents to see whats inside? It is really fun to see the excitement of small children as they open their presents. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an enjoyable time of the year. Its when families gather together to share a wonderful holiday meal and exchange presents. After all, who does not love to tear the wrapping off their presents to see whats inside? It is really fun to see the excitement of small children as they open their presents. <br />
This type of excitement was on display this past week as little Ben Bernanke unwrapped his present. It brought a tear to my eye as I saw the sheer joy on little Bens face as he gazed at his present â a shiny, brand-new helicopter! Little Ben screamed âMommy, mommy, look at my new helicopter! Now I can dump all the money I want out of my new helicopter and make everyone happyâ! <br />
Yes, this was the week that the Federal Reserve entered uncharted territory and in effect lowered interest rates to zero. This event had been predicted in my prior Absolute Zero article and by others here at Oxbury Publishing. <br />
Im sure this action by the Federal Reserve was wildly cheered in the executive suites of firms such as Citibank (C) and Bank of America (BAC). Speaking of those two shining examples of American âextremeâ capitalism, there was an interesting tidbit about them in the Financial Times. <br />
The Financial Times cited one recent estimate which looked at those two firms total leverage ratios. The total leverage ratio looked at both firms on-book and off-book assets and exposure and divided that figure by tangible equity. The leverage ratios were an outlandish 88:1 for Citibank and 134:1 for Bank of America. Is it any wonder that our financial system is in such dire straits?  <br />
<strong>Wall Street Children</strong> <br />
The children, otherwise known as money managers, on Wall Street were also unwrapping their presents this past week. It was amazing to see the childrens reaction to the hot new Wall Street board game, Lose Your Clients Money.  <br />
What glee! What excitement! âLook mommy, I invested billions of dollars of clients money into Treasury bills at a negative rate of interest! I wanted the money to be âsafeâ because that bedtime story I read, Grisly Tales of Deflation, really scared meâ! <br />
Yes, the numbskulls on Wall Street continue to miss the very obvious fact that the so-called liquidity trap is quickly turning into a liquidity flood. Did they not see Ben Bernanke gassing up his shiny new helicopter? Did they not notice that Bens new helicopter was armed with Hellfire missiles which he fired on the dam, unleashing a flood of liquidity? <br />
Its a basic economic fact that in a fiat money system central banks can easily create an infinite quantity of money at no cost. So central bankers can reduce the value of the money they are creating in effect to zero, if they wish. In other words, in a fiat money system such as we have curing the much-feared deflation disease is childs play. Yet, the Wall Street children cannot seem to grasp this. Why is this? <br />
<strong>Mommy, Im Scared!</strong> <br />
As Ive stated in prior articles, I firmly believe that our financial system is plagued by a lack of independent thinking and this lack of independent Wall Street thinkers has played a major role in the current financial crisis. <br />
I believe this is especially pertinent in todays society. People are exposed to Wall Street group think through media outlets such as CNBC and they also become âinfectedâ. Therefore many individual investors also do not think for themselves and their thoughts simply line up with Wall Streets thoughts. Thats why so many people have bought fully into the deflation myth.  <br />
The Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme is just the latest example of how willing Wall Street money managers are to invest in something that their peers appear happy with, without doing the necessary due diligence themselves. This âherdâ behavior again highlights the lack of independent thought on Wall Street.  <br />
This âherdâ behavior also explains why Wall Street money managers are currently piling into Treasuries, even at negative interest rates. If âallâ of the money managers are in the same investments, they are safe. That is, their cushy jobs are safe.  <br />
The money managers can simply say âBut mommy, everyone else was doing it too, so you cant blame me for the huge lossesâ. If Wall Street money managers dare have an independent thought and they are wrong, they soon lose their cushy jobs. Most Wall Street people will simply not risk it. <br />
So the Wall Street money managers jobs are safe but the same cannot be said for their clients money. I want to emphasize again to investors that the number one priority for Wall Street money managers is job preservation. Preservation of clients capital is well down on the list. Therefore it is of utmost importance that investors get input from independent sources such as Oxbury Publishing.   <br />
My own experience is a real life example. In my final year of twenty years at a brokerage firm, I got into lots of trouble with the new managers they had hired. Why? I was told that I was âwastingâ far too much time meeting with clients and helping the clients set up investment plans to meet the clients financial goals!  <br />
They wanted me to spend more time bringing assets in the door. I asked â âWhat about when the assets are in the door, what then?â Managements reply - âOnce the assets are here, who cares? Most people are too lazy to transfer their accountâ! Needless to say, I moved on shortly thereafter. <br />
<strong>Twas the Night Before&#8230;..</strong> <br />
I wanted to leave everyone with some holiday cheer - a poem. My apologies to the original author which most people believe was Clement Clarke Moore. <br />
Twas the night before Christmas, when all through Wall Street <br />
Not a creature was stirring, not even a rat called Dick Fuld; <br />
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care, <br />
In hopes that Santa Ben with sacks full of money would soon be there; <br />
The bankers were nestled all snug in their beds, <br />
While visions of perks and bonuses danced in their heads; <br />
When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter, <br />
The bankers sprang from their beds to see what was the matter. <br />
When, what to their wandering eyes should appear, <br />
But a miniature limo with eight cylinders under the hood, <br />
With a bald-headed, bearded driver, so lively and quick, <br />
The bankers knew in a moment it must be Santa Ben. <br />
Down the chimney came Santa Ben with a bound. <br />
A bundle of money he had flung on his back, <br />
And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack. <br />
He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work, <br />
And filled all the stockings with billions of dollars; <br />
And giving a nod, up the chimney he rose; <br />
He sprang to his limo, and away he flew. <br />
As he drove out of sight, he was heard to exclaim, <br />
âHappy Holidays to all, and to all a good nightâ! <br />
Happy Holidays Everyone, <br />
Tony DâAltorio <br />
Analyst, Oxbury Research  <br />
Disclosure: no positions</p>
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		<title>President Elect Obama Makes Puzzling Choice for SBA Chief</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:49:51 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Just when I was starting to get really impressed with President Elect Barack Obamas cabinet picks  overall a pretty strong line-up  comes a puzzling choice for the new Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration. 
Hes chosen a venture capitalist as the head of the organization that is supposed to serve the nations [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just when I was starting to get really impressed with President Elect Barack Obamas cabinet picks  overall a pretty strong line-up  comes a puzzling choice for the new Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration. <br />
Hes chosen a venture capitalist as the head of the organization that is supposed to serve the nations small businesses.  <br />
News announcements have touted her venture capital background as if its somehow a benefit.  But is it? <br />
Does Karen Mills background as a VC qualify her to head up an agency to serve small businesses?   <br />
Id say Its not a relevant qualification  if anything, its a negative.  Why?  Because the vast majority of the nations businesses would never qualify for venture capital.  So if you are going to look at it through the lens of doling out venture money, most of those businesses wouldnt rate a second look from a VC  or even a first look.   <br />
Is someone who views the world of businesses as being those that would qualify for venture capital, predisposed to serve the 27 million small businesses that would never qualify for VC money? <br />
Lets look at three points:    <br />
The SBA has come under criticism for not serving enough small businesses, serving businesses that are too large, and not making enough loans.  Well, if youre going to make more loans and serve more small businesses, you need to be looking at expanding micro-lending programs.  Because that is what would touch many more small businesses (including the roughly 20 million of whom are single-person businesses). And the reality is, most small businesses dont need a whole lot of money to grow.  So micro-lending makes the most sense if you want to reach the most small businesses.   <br />
Few businesses get venture capital money.  The predisposition of VCs is to just say no.  They have to be very choosy, because they are taking big risks with big money.  They look for high-growth businesses.  Fact is, most small businesses in the United States are not high growth businesses.  The mission of the SBA is to aid, counsel, assist and protect the interests of small business concerns.  Not high growth businesses but small businesses.  Two completely different things. <br />
Venture capitalists make a small number of investments and take big risks.  But should that be the role of the U.S. taxpayer (which funds the SBA)?  VCs make big money because they take big risks  and they also lose money on many of their investments. Underwriting SBA loans and serving a wide swatch of small businesses requires a different mindset, than the VCs big risk, big payday mindset.   <br />
As Dawn Rivers Baker says, while it looks like the majority of small businesses will just continue to be ignored, lets give her a chance and see what she does.   <br />
Meanwhile, what do you think?  Negative or positive to bring in a venture capitalist to head up the Small Business Administration?  Sound off in the comments below, and be sure to give your reasons. <br />
Share This </p>
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		<title>The day after</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:49:40 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Day AfterI was back to work by mid-morning today as i was assigned to gather some feedback from the business community of the impact of the electoral outcomes. from the feedback, there is expectation that sentiment would weaken further as uncertainty looms over the setting up of a new federal administration as well as [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Day AfterI was back to work by mid-morning today as i was assigned to gather some feedback from the business community of the impact of the electoral outcomes. from the feedback, there is expectation that sentiment would weaken further as uncertainty looms over the setting up of a new federal administration as well as state governments. nonetheless, those i&#8217;ve spoken to express hope that no violent incident would take place during this period of transition of power. I choose to be optimistic. i believe that Malaysians have grown more civilised than 39 years ago. while we could not be totally rid of delinquents and extremists, the bulk of us are still keen on keep the peace and harmony that we&#8217;ve enjoyed so far. also, the difference between now and 1969 is that we&#8217;ve become a more mature society with longer history and identity. most of us are second or third generations of Malays, Chinese, Indians and aborigines, who have not experienced World War 2 or any significant conflicts. We grew up together among each other with the various cultures, beliefs and customs. we&#8217;re used to practices of our Muslim friends when they fast, or when firecrackers broke during Chinese New Year (altho&#8217; this is forbidden legally), or when our Indian friends put on a mark on their forehead after they performed prayers. today we have a better understanding of each other than in 1969, when our grandfathers had less than 15 years of living together among the different races. economically, we have a firmer standing than our neigbouring countries thanks to natural resources, policies and incentives for investments. we&#8217;re more confident being Malaysian today than 39 years ago. as such, we have much to lose if we were to give up our multi-facet society. While this election saw millions of Malaysians opting for an alternative, it is also a bold step of faith putting confidence in some individuals that have no prior political experience up until now. as could be seen from the voting trend, voters were not basing their votes on individuals. rather, their decision was on party basis hence whoever the oppositions had fielded, whether fresh or familiar faces, they won by huge majority. this is not to say that these candidates were not qualified. like the saying goes, &#8220;they were at the right place, at the right time.&#8221;The journey of a million mile begins with a single step. now that we have taken that first step, it is now up to the opposition leaders to meet the expectations, which will not be an easy task. the three opposition parties have very different manifestos and the gap could be quite wide too. also, they have not had the experience of working together especially in forming a coalition government. hence they face an uphill task of proving to the people that they have the ability to govern and could provide the change that they&#8217;ve promised in their campaign. Nonetheless, it is a good start that they have the four new states as these would provide them with sufficient exposure and opportunity to iron the differences and work together. they would definitely make some mistakes, some could be stupid ones too but hopefully, they would not disappoint the rakyat too much. for now, it is still yet to be seen how things would work out but the people&#8217;s confidence shown in this elections would be a motivator for leaders to come together and forgo their differences. if used correctly, such confidence would define the future direction of this country. As for the ruling party, this outcome served as a reminder that in a democratic society, the people&#8217;s interest rises above personals and that people are not as ignorant as perceived. in an age when information technology is widely used and information is more vastly available, everyone has the ability to discern and decide for his/her self. society is no longer as easily socialised as before, even when mainstream media is mainly owned by political parties and has a high sensorship level. it is also not true that masyarakat mudah lupa (society easily forgets) because there are some things that won&#8217;t slipped our mind, like when a certain politician has a huge bungalow built for millions of ringgit without proper approvals, or when leaders kept raising keris in a political assembly without considering other groups in the country, or when peaceful demonstrations were forbidded for a worthy cause, or when individuals accused of corruptions were not properly dealt with. the phrase &#8220;he sounds like me, looks like me but he is not me&#8230;&#8221; has become one of the best lines for jokes in town. When leaders decide to listen intensely, they would actually hear what those on the ground are saying and if they paid enough attention, they would know the root of the issues and instead of hiding behind the fences and giving excuses, they would gain more respect if they come face-to-face with the demon himself. The political landscape has changed. whether the wind would continue blowing would depend on how both sides perform in the next five years. let&#8217;s not disappoint the very ones that have put the parties into that position.</p>
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		<title>Oil markets brush off OPEC\&#8217;s big cut</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 12:49:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Oil markets brush off OPEC&#8217;s big cutInvestors are unimpressed despite cartel&#8217;s massive production cuts, sending oil below $40 (U.S.) for first time in five yearsSHAWN MCCARTHYGLOBAL ENERGY REPORTERDecember 18, 2008OTTAWA &#8212; Oil markets gave a sharply negative review yesterday to OPEC&#8217;s decision to slash production by a further 2.2 million barrels a day, as crude [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil markets brush off OPEC&#8217;s big cutInvestors are unimpressed despite cartel&#8217;s massive production cuts, sending oil below $40 (U.S.) for first time in five yearsSHAWN MCCARTHYGLOBAL ENERGY REPORTERDecember 18, 2008OTTAWA &#8212; Oil markets gave a sharply negative review yesterday to OPEC&#8217;s decision to slash production by a further 2.2 million barrels a day, as crude prices fell below $40 (U.S.) a barrel for the first time in more than five years.At a meeting in Algeria, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut supplies by a total of 4.2 million barrels a day below September levels. The cartel had already agreed to rein in production by two million barrels at two separate meetings this fall.However, traders responded to the largest OPEC cut yet by driving down the price of crude, and analysts said the action was too little, too late to prevent a further erosion in oil prices early next year.&#8221;Markets are saying, it&#8217;s not enough, it&#8217;s insufficient&#8221; said Dina Cover, commodity economist with the Toronto-Dominion Bank.Pointing to the prospect of an actual drop in oil demand next year, Ms. Cover recently forecast oil prices to slump to as low as $25 (U.S.) a barrel, and to average $30 (U.S.) in the second quarter of next year.And OPEC&#8217;s new production targets don&#8217;t change that view, she said yesterday.&#8221;We expect demand to fall a lot further and OPEC will probably have to cut again.&#8221;In New York yesterday, the price of light, sweet crude fell 8 per cent or $3.54 (U.S.) a barrel to $40.06, after trading as low as $39.88.In their communiqué, OPEC ministers said that, &#8220;if unchecked, prices could fall to levels which would place at jeopardy the investments required to guarantee adequate energy supplies in the medium-to-long term.&#8221;Traders remain skeptical that OPEC will actually meet its targeted, 4.2-million-barrel reduction, said David Kirsch, energy analyst with PFC Energy.The cartel has not fully implemented the two-million-barrel cut announced in two stages this fall, and gave little indication of how individual members are expected to comply with the latest round.&#8221;OPEC has got its work cut out for it, and there is very much a question of OPEC&#8217;s ability to carry through on its agreement,&#8221; Mr. Kirsch said.The cartel called on non-OPEC producers to help maintain the stability of global oil markets by reining in production. Several countries, including Russia, Azerbaijan and Syria sent observers to the meeting, but made no commitment to impose cuts.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin instead told the meeting that Russian producers had already cut production this fall and would do so again if market conditions warranted.It would have been helpful in the communiqué if Russia had come out and indicated it would cut production,&#8221; Mr. Kirsch said.&#8221;But [Mr.] Sechin&#8217;s statement merely reflected what the markets already knew,&#8221; he said. &#8220;If oil prices remain at low levels - and more importantly, if the financial straits that a lot of Russian oil companies find themselves don&#8217;t ease soon - Russian output is going to fall a further 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day.&#8221;Saudi Arabia has once again emerged as the key producer that must adjust its volumes to market conditions. Last spring, when prices were climbing to record levels, the Saudis faced considerable pressure from oil-consuming nations to boost production.And now, it will be up to the world&#8217;s largest exporter to absorb much of the production cuts. The alternative is to allow prices to slump even further than currently projected, forcing higher-cost producers, including those in Canada&#8217;s oil sands, to reduce output and scale back investment.OPEC OUTPUT CUTOPEC oil ministers agreed yesterday to remove a record 2.2-million barrels per day from oil markets in a race to balance supply with the world&#8217;s rapidly crumbling demand for fuel.OPEC OUTPUTMillion barrels per day (mb/d)Jan. &#8216;07 26.92Jan. &#8216;08 29.89Aug. &#8216;08 30.4Nov.*&#8217;08 28.07Note: OPEC 12 includes Angola and Ecuador.* Indonesia leaves OPEC at the end of 2008 and is excluded from quota from Nov. 2008.BRENT CRUDE PRICEWeekly close, $U.S.Jan. 7/07 $55.64Jan. 6/07 $96.79Jul. 13/08 $144.49Dec. 17/08 $47.90REUTERS/THE GLOBE AND MAIL66 SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS</p>
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